مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال هفتم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)

In this paper strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing Iran’s pistachio export market was identified. Then, strategies for the allocation of percentage of profit for marketing were selected using QSPM. In the end, by using SAW method, Fuzzy Topsis and QSPM methods were compared. Data were collected from a survey of scholars and experts of the industry using questionnaire. The data were analyzed to confirm or rule out the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities using univariate t-test. Finally two methods of country and finally, the fuzzy TOPSIS were compared for evaluating strategies. It was concluded that Fuzzy TOPSIS was the best method for prioritizing pistachios export strategies.

This paper investigates spillover effects of volatility of lamb، beef and poultry prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasitic (GARCH) model for period of 1997-2011. Findings of the study showed that the volatility of consumer meat prices had significant and positive spillover effects on the volatility of other prices. Moreover، the volatility of consumer prices had positive impact on its own volatility. The results of the study showed the presence of significant feedback among three meat prices under consideration indicating that each retail meat market used information from the other ones when forming their own price expectations. The presence of positive and significant price volatility spillover effects across various meat markets indicates that higher price volatility in one meat category increase price volatility in the others. This phenomenon causes market uncertainty and risk for consumers. On this basis، providing appropriate policy package in both demand and supply side of these commodities are recommended.

The health issue is the most important issue in the process of food production and processing. Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Point (HACCP) in production and distribution centers of food products is among the most efficient method in ensuring food healthiness. Considering this fact، in this study the benefits and the barriers for application of HACCP system are studied based on field data obtained from interview with 50 managers of food processing units in Mashhad in 1393. The results revealed that the overall benefit index for application of HACCP system was 0. 805 and safety index of the product was 0. 92. Technical-production، market، trade and economy were other important indices. Also، the overall index for the barriers of the system implementation was 0. 64. Managers believed that lack of financial support by the government، the limitations for changing production line and budget restrictions were the main barriers for application of the system. Based on the findings، government financial support، extending low-interest loans to production units، slight increase in the price of the products produced for units using HACCP system are suggested.

Pistachio is one of the main Iranian non oil exports in that is affected by various factors، including fluctuations in the relative Prices. This study examines the factors affecting supply of pistachio exports for period of 1982-2011. In this study، several symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models were used for determining the impacts of price volatility on pistachio export. Then، pistachio export function was estimated using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Corrected Models (ECM) for realizing long run and short run relations among variables. The results shows that the most appropriate GARCH model to examine the volatility of the price of pistachio export supply is EGARCH model that in this model، price volatility has a negative، asymmetric and significant impact on pistachio export and this variable in long run and short run، has negative and significant impact on supply of pistachio export. Other variables such as domestic production of pistachio، revenue from oil export and real foreign exchange rate have their expected signs on pistachio export. It is suggested that in formulation of trade policies of pistachio، the volatility of the price should be noted and avoid negative shocks to pistachio export supply.

In this study the impact of climate variables such as precipitation and temperature fluctuations and seed، urea and phosphate fertilizers on the yield of maize was studied in three different climate zones of Iran. For this purpose، Ricardian and spatial econometric models were used. The results showed the severity of climate change fluctuations، in all three climates، has been enough to identify as systematical risk factors. The results showed that، the extreme heat in the growing season of September، and lack of precipitation during the growing season (October) in warm climate zone were the main factors which caused decline in maize yield. In moderate climate، overheating during growing season (August) and harvest (October) considered as systematical risk factors. Also in the cold climate، heat in growing and flowering seasons (June and August) and harvest season (November) had negative effect on crop yield.

This paper aims to determine the relationship between macro-economic variables such as، inequality and economic growth on poverty for period of 2000-2010. Data were extracted from income-expenditure survey of rural families. The results of the study indicated that poverty and income inequality decreased slightly during the period under study. The results showed that due to increasing inequality and economic participation، the percentage of poor families has been increased، but increase in savings has caused absolute poverty to decline.

Forecasting economic variables as a helpful planning tool has got considerable attention in economic literature. There are various methods that could be used for forecasting. The objective of this study is to identify an efficient method for predicting Iran’s leather and skin exports. For this purpose، auto-regressive integrated moving average process (ARIMA)، artificial neural networks (ANN) and hybrid methodology of ANN-ARIMA were compared using time series data from 1971 to 2010. The results showed that hybrid methodology of ANN-ARIMA that decompose the exports time series into its linear and nonlinear forms has better forecasting performance and higher accuracy compare to other methods. In addition، the hybrid methodology as the most accurate method in this research، forecasted the amount of leather and skin export better than the other two methods. However، similar to other two methods it predicts that leather and skin exports would have a downward trend in coming years.

This study aims to determine the most effective estimate of hedonic model for pricing agricultural land in Sanandaj Central Township. The necessary data obtained through completing 124 questionnaires and applying a classified random sampling method. The results showed that the estimation made by spatial econometric method in terms of R square and percentage of significant coefficients was more accurate. Furthermore، the effect of spatial dependent variable on land price was positive and significant. Finally، it is recommended to utilize spatial econometric model for hedonic valuation of agricultural land.

This paper examines the impact of global productivity shocks in selected regions (Shanghai Group Countries) on Iranian agriculture sector applying framework of computable general equilibrium model. Needed data obtained from 2007 Social Accounting Matrix and GTAP8 data base. The results show that increase of 3 and 7 percent productivity in Shanghai Group countries'' industrial sector increase agricultural production by 0. 048 and 0. 12 percent respectively. Thus،the positive changes of productivity due to spillover technology in Shanghai Group countries can influence all production sectors including agriculture.

Iran is a heavily oil dependent country and imports relatively high amounts of agricultural products. A number of studies in recent years indicate that oil price shocks affect food price in Iran. The aim of this paper is considering the impact of oil price shocks among other variables such as food production، real per capita income، intra industry trade and liquidity on food price in Iran. For this purpose، Hodrick-Prescott filter were used to obtain the oil price shocks using annual observations for 1975-2008 period. Then، Johanson-Joselius and Error-Correction models applied to estimate long and short term relations. The results revealed that co- integration among all variables is existed and oil price shocks significantly affect food price in the long run. The error correction term (-0. 18) is found to be negative suggesting a slow adjustment process.

This study aims at examining factors affecting energy consumption and carbon intensity in agriculture sector. To get this aim، data for 1353-1391 (1974-2012) were applied. Factors affecting energy and carbon intensity in agriculture sector are per capita GDP، energy price، labor، per capita capital and capital growth. Findings of the study showed that per capita GDP and labor- per capita capital ratio had negative effect on energy consumption intensity، however capital accumulation led to higher carbon emissions.